Kohl’s Stock – Deep Analysis
Hey there, fellow investors! If you’ve been keeping an eye on the stock market lately, you might’ve noticed Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS) making some serious waves. This Wisconsin-based retail giant, known for its department stores packed with everything from trendy clothes to home goods, has had a wild ride in 2025. From a jaw-dropping 37% surge in a single day to ongoing chatter about it being a “meme stock,” Kohl’s stock is a hot topic. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just curious about what’s driving all this buzz, let’s break down what’s happening with Kohl’s stock, how it’s performing, and whether it’s a smart pick for your portfolio.
Who Is Kohl’s, Anyway?
For those who don’t know, Kohl’s is a household name across the U.S., with over 1,100 stores in 49 states and a bustling online shop at www.kohls.com. Since opening its first store in 1962, Kohl’s has grown into America’s largest department store chain (yep, it even overtook JCPenney back in 2012). You can find everything from cozy Sonoma Goods for Life bedding to stylish LC Lauren Conrad dresses, plus big-name brands like Nine West. It’s the kind of place where you go for a new pair of jeans and end up with a cart full of home decor and kids’ clothes. But lately, Kohl’s stock (KSS) has been more like a rollercoaster at Six Flags than a steady climb. Let’s dive into what’s been going on.
Kohl’s Stock: A Wild Ride in 2025
The Big Surge and Meme Stock Mania
Picture this: on July 22, 2025, Kohl’s stock skyrocketed 37% in a single day, closing at $10.42, according to CNBC. That’s not all—during trading, it briefly doubled in value, with volume 17 times higher than the average. The stock market even had to hit the pause button because things got so crazy! So, what sparked this frenzy? It’s got “meme stock” written all over it. If you remember GameStop or Bed Bath & Beyond in 2021, this is a similar vibe. Retail investors on platforms like Reddit’s WallStreetBets and X have been hyping up Kohl’s because nearly 50% of its shares are held by short sellers—folks betting the stock will tank. When the price starts climbing, those short sellers scramble to buy back shares, pushing the price even higher. It’s called a short squeeze, and it’s like pouring gasoline on a fire.
Posts on X, like one from @SpecialSitsNews calling out an 85% jump, or @Grit_Capital noting a 20% spike fueled by retail traders, show how social media is driving this craze. But here’s the catch: analysts like Neil Saunders from GlobalData warn that this rally isn’t backed by strong company performance. It’s more about market hype than Kohl’s suddenly becoming the next Amazon.
The Bigger Picture: A Tough Year
Despite that one-day party, Kohl’s stock hasn’t exactly been a superstar in 2025. Year-to-date, it’s down about 42% as of May, and over the past 12 months, it’s taken a brutal 70% hit. Compare that to the broader market, which gained 14.8%, or the retail sector, up 24%, and Kohl’s is lagging big time. Its 52-week range shows the struggle: a low of $6.04 and a high of $22.53. That’s a lot of ups and downs for a stock trading at just over $10 now.
Technical traders on platforms like TradingView and X (shoutout to @StockChartPros) have pointed out some bullish signals, like a “golden cross” on the daily chart, where a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term one. But the vibe on X and StockTwits is mostly bearish, with folks worried about tariffs and Kohl’s shaky fundamentals. It’s a mixed bag, to say the least.
How’s Kohl’s Doing Financially?
Q1 and Q3 2024: Some Wins, Some Losses
Let’s talk numbers. In the first quarter of 2024 (ended May 2025), Kohl’s beat Wall Street’s expectations, posting a smaller-than-expected loss of $0.13 per share on $3.23 billion in sales. Analysts had predicted a $0.28 loss and $3.20 billion in revenue, so that’s a win. Comparable store sales slipped 3.9%, but that was better than the expected 4% drop. Kohl’s also stuck to its full-year forecast, expecting a sales decline of 5-7% and earnings per share between $0.10 and $0.60. Bright spots included a 6% sales boost from its Sephora partnership, a 5.2% cut in operating expenses, and a slight uptick in gross margin to 39.9%.
But the third quarter (ended November 2, 2024) was rougher. Net sales dropped 8.8%, and comparable sales fell 9.3%. Earnings per share came in at $0.20, but declines in apparel and footwear sales dragged down the results, even with growth in Sephora, home decor, and the new Babies “R” Us sections in 200 stores. Kohl’s tweaked its full-year outlook to reflect these challenges, which isn’t exactly music to investors’ ears.
The Full-Year Story
For all of 2024, Kohl’s reported a 7.2% drop in net sales and a 6.5% decline in comparable sales. Revenue was $16.22 billion, down from $17.48 billion in 2023, and earnings crashed 65.62% to $109 million. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.50, with an EBITDA of $1.26 billion. On the plus side, Kohl’s is still paying a hefty 15.41% dividend yield, which is tempting for income-focused investors. But with a payout ratio of 205.51%, there’s a big question mark over whether that dividend can keep going.
The Good and the Bad
Kohl’s has some strengths. Its market cap is $1.08 billion, and its price-to-earnings ratio of 9.19 suggests it’s cheap compared to competitors. Its price-to-book and price-to-sales ratios are also way below their five-year averages, which could scream “undervalued” to bargain hunters. But here’s the flip side: debt has ballooned from $4.2 billion in 2012 to $7.4 billion today, and free cash flow has shrunk from $1.2 billion to just $0.1 billion. Revenue’s down too, from $18.8 billion to $16 billion over the same period. That’s not a pretty trend.
What Are Analysts Saying?
Wall Street’s not exactly throwing a parade for Kohl’s. Out of 13 analysts, the average rating is “Sell,” with a 12-month price target of $8.38—about 41% below the recent $14.11 price. UBS slapped a “Sell” rating with a $4.00 target, pointing to weak fundamentals and tariff risks. Goldman Sachs is a bit more optimistic, raising their target to $7.00, thanks to better sales and inventory management. Meanwhile, Morningstar thinks Kohl’s is way undervalued, which might catch the eye of long-term investors. The 42-analyst consensus ranges from $4.00 to $29.00, with a median of $15.61, so there’s no clear agreement here.
Risks and Opportunities for Kohl’s
The Risks
Kohl’s is up against some tough headwinds. Shoppers are tightening their belts, online sales dropped 7.7% in Q1 2025, and competition from giants like Target and Amazon is fierce. There’s also buzz about potential tariffs under a new administration, which could hit retailers hard, as CNBC noted. Plus, Kohl’s just went through a CEO shake-up—Ashley Buchanan was ousted for ethical violations, and Michael Bender is now interim CEO. That kind of uncertainty doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Mizuho analysts even flagged Kohl’s as a potential bankruptcy risk, alongside other retailers like DSW.
The Opportunities
It’s not all doom and gloom. Kohl’s is doubling down on strategies to turn things around. Their Sephora shops are a hit, and the Babies “R” Us partnership is bringing in new customers. They’re also focusing on their own brands and improving their online shopping experience. With a low valuation and that juicy dividend yield, Kohl’s could be a diamond in the rough for patient investors. And let’s not forget the short interest—nearly half the shares are shorted, so another squeeze could send the stock soaring again, as we saw on July 22.
Should You Buy Kohl’s Stock?
So, is Kohl’s stock a hidden gem or a risky bet? The recent meme stock frenzy makes it tempting for traders looking to ride the wave, but the lack of solid fundamentals means you’ve got to tread carefully. Kohl’s is fighting to stay relevant with Sephora and Babies “R” Us, but declining sales, high debt, and leadership drama are red flags. If you’re a value investor who loves a bargain and can handle volatility, Kohl’s might be worth a look, especially with its dirt-cheap valuation and big dividend. But if you’re risk-averse, the bearish analyst ratings and tariff concerns might give you pause.
Want to stay in the loop? Check out Yahoo Finance, CNBC, or Kohl’s Investor Relations for the latest updates. Do your homework, weigh the risks, and make a move that fits your strategy. What do you think—is Kohl’s a buy, or are you steering clear? Let me know in the comments!
Note: Stock prices and financial data are based on information available as of July 23, 2025. Always verify current data before investing.
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